Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside, according to this report by IMF.
The risks include:
- further trade and technology tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment;
- a protracted increase in risk aversion that exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates; and
- mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.