The global economy could shrink 4% in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Bloomberg Economics estimate.
The prediction is based on an assumption that a recovery would start in the second half of the year, a recent Bloomberg report states.
Under such a scenario, the US GDP is estimated to contract 6.4% while euro area GDP is set to shrink 8.1%, says the report, adding that Japan could shrink 4% and China would grow at the slowest pace on record.
In addition, if a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak hits, the global contraction could reach 5.6%, the report says.Â
If stimulus is insufficient, output could plummet 7.2%, the report notes.
As the current pandemic in unlike the Asian crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2009 which were more about fundamental economic and financial imbalances, countries that have created enough stimulus could stage a fast recovery, the report says.
