Global economy to grow 5.9% in 2021, recovery momentum weakens

The global economy is projected to grow 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast, said IMF recently. 

The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downgrade for advanced economies — in part due to supply disruptions — and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics, the organisation noted. 

This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies, IMF predicted. 

Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome, the organisation said, adding that policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneouver. 

Beyond 2022 growth of the global economy is projected to moderate to about 3.3% over the medium term, according to the IMF.

Advanced economy output is forecast to exceed pre-pandemic medium-term projections—largely reflecting sizable anticipated further policy support in the United States that includes measures to increase potential, IMF said . 

By contrast, persistent output losses are anticipated for the emerging market and developing economy group due to slower vaccine rollouts and generally less policy support compared to advanced economies, IMF added.